Over the next two decades, LBBD is set to absorb a significant share of London and the Thames Gateway’s growth. BBP was commissioned to forecast housing demand trends in the London Borough of Barking and Dagenham (LBBD) to 2021 in order to help the borough plan for and manage this growth, inform the proposed housing mix across new development sites and determine the subsequent economic contributions/impacts in both the town centre and Zones of Change such as Barking Riverside.

Housing forecasts are usually based on current population growth trends combined with household characteristics. This study however, adopted a different approach, as it is known that Barking is about to undergo considerable change, including developments at Barking Reach and Ambition for South Dagenham, as well as a host of transport improvements. These factors were built into the model, with three scenarios reflecting the varying extent to which LBBD might be affected.

Using socio-economic information, it was possible to predict future housing demand in terms of type, tenure, and size mix. This identified that the Borough can expect to see a rising number of residents greater earning power, which means a reduced requirement for affordable housing.